Abstract This paper presents three measures of the output gap estimated by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Czech economy. We argue that the most plausible description of the business cycle provides the output gap defined as a deviation from a flexible price level of output, which is generated solely by permanent growth shocks. Our model shows that 2006-2008 overheating of the economy and the following 2008-2009 slump can be largely attributed to development in a world economy and export and import sectors, while the 2012-2013 recession was caused mainly by a combination of adverse domestic demand and cost shocks.

中文翻译：

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捷克经济中的产出缺口：DSGE方法

摘要本文提出了通过捷克经济的动态随机一般均衡模型估算的产出缺口的三种度量。我们认为，对商业周期最合理的描述是将产出缺口定义为与灵活的产出价格水平的偏差，后者仅由永久性增长冲击产生。我们的模型显示，2006-2008年经济过热以及随后的2008-2009年暴跌主要可归因于世界经济以及进出口部门的发展，而2012-2013年的经济衰退主要是由不利的国内需求造成的和成本冲击。