Abstract We show an example of a small open economy – the Czech Republic – where the fiscal restriction was put in place between 2010 and 2013 in a negative output gap and zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. According to our results, such fiscal policy seems to have been mistaken, as the restriction may apparently have caused a second recession in the Czech Republic in 2012/2013 (after the global recession in 2008/2009). Instead of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach (DSGE), we applied a tractable static deterministic partial equilibrium approach using the IS-LM framework. We derived mathematically from the IS-LM model that expansionary fiscal policy acting via higher government investment can be an appropriate tool for reacting to a crisis in the very short run when interest rates hit the zero lower bound. Expansionary fiscal policy after the 2008/2009 crisis would probably have led to faster stabilisation of the Czech economy. We simulate a potential increase in government investment of 8% yearly between 2011 and 2013. This would have added 0.4 pp to GDP growth and increased the inflation rate by about 0.5 pp. Hence, the inflation outlook in 2013 would not have been negative and would consequently have led to less pressure for monetary policy expansion using unconventional interventions against the Czech koruna.

中文翻译：

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十年后：DSGE建设者和捷克政策制定者的经验教训

摘要我们展示了一个小型开放经济体的例子-捷克共和国-该国在2010年至2013年之间实施了财政限制，以负的产出缺口和名义利率的下限为零。根据我们的结果，这种财政政策似乎是错误的，因为这种限制显然导致了2012/2013年捷克共和国的第二次衰退（在2008/2009年全球衰退之后）。代替动态随机一般均衡方法（DSGE），我们使用IS-LM框架应用了易于处理的静态确定性部分均衡方法。我们从IS-LM模型中得出数学结论，即当利率达到零下限时，通过增加政府投资来实施扩张性财政政策可能是应对危机的合适工具。2008/2009年危机后的扩张性财政政策可能会导致捷克经济更快地稳定下来。我们模拟了2011年至2013年期间政府投资每年可能增长8％的情况。这将使GDP增长增加0.4个百分点，并使通货膨胀率提高约0.5个百分点。因此，2013年的通货膨胀前景不会是负面的，并且会因此，采用针对捷克克朗的非常规干预措施，导致货币政策扩张的压力较小。