Analysis of fiscal policy changes using general equilibrium models with forward-looking agents typically requires a counterfactual adjustment to some fiscal instrument in order to achieve the debt sustainability implied by the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. The choice of fiscal instrument can induce economic behavior unrelated to the policy change in models where Ricardian Equivalence does not hold. In this article, we use an overlapping generations framework to examine the effects of alternative fiscal closing assumptions on projected changes to economic aggregates following a change in tax policy, assessing the extent to which the bias associated with a particular fiscal instrument can be mitigated. While we find quantitative differences in projected macroeconomic activity across alternative fiscal instruments, these differences tend to shrink as the closing date is delayed. Ultimately, the choice of fiscal instrument becomes relatively unimportant if fiscal closing can be delayed sufficiently into the future.

中文翻译：

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动态评分：对财政收尾假设的评估

使用具有前瞻性代理人的一般均衡模型分析财政政策变化通常需要对某些财政工具进行反事实调整，以实现政府跨期预算约束所隐含的债务可持续性。在李嘉图等价不成立的模型中，财政工具的选择可以诱发与政策变化无关的经济行为。在本文中，我们使用重叠世代框架来研究替代财政收尾假设对税收政策变化后经济总量预计变化的影响，评估与特定财政工具相关的偏差可以在多大程度上得到缓解。虽然我们发现不同财政工具之间预测的宏观经济活动存在数量差异，随着截止日期的推迟，这些差异往往会缩小。最终，如果财政收尾能够充分推迟到未来，财政工具的选择就变得相对不重要。