Policy uncertainty is a type of aggregate risk that has important economic and welfare implications. In this article, I develop a simple general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which households are uncertain as to the type and timing of an inevitable Social Security reform. I document how households’ expectations over the path of future policy influences their behavior. I find that the economic and welfare effects of policy uncertainty are highly sensitive to households’ beliefs over the path of future policy.

中文翻译：

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不确定的社会保障改革对福利的影响

政策不确定性是一种具有重要经济和福利影响的总体风险。在本文中，我开发了一个简单的一般均衡重叠世代模型，其中家庭不确定不可避免的社会保障改革的类型和时间。我记录了家庭对未来政策路径的期望如何影响他们的行为。我发现政策不确定性对经济和福利的影响对家庭对未来政策路径的信念高度敏感。