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The Path of Reform: The Consequences of Institutional Volatility
Kyklos ( IF 1.796 ) Pub Date : 2019-03-22 , DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12205
J. Brandon Bolen , Claudia R. Williamson

The new institutional literature widely acknowledges the benefits of growth‐enhancing institutions but rarely discusses the path of institutional reform. While good institutions stabilize the structure of exchange and decrease uncertainty in market transactions, institutional reform may involve institutional volatility. If institutional volatility increases uncertainty, it can mitigate the benefits of reform. Using a sample of 89 countries from 2000‐2015, this paper empirically examines the effects of institutional volatility on economic growth. We find that institutional volatility decreases economic growth, particularly during liberalization for countries with low quality institutions and low income. In fact, a one standard deviation increase in volatility decreases growth by about 0.50 percentage points. This finding is robust to multiple estimation techniques and omitted variable bias. Evidence is provided suggesting that this effect is partially mediated through volatility's impact on private investment. These results support prior works that policy makers should pursue economic freedom, but our work indicates they should do so along a stable reform path to maximize economic growth.

中文翻译:

改革之路:制度波动的后果

新制度文献广泛承认促进增长的制度的好处,但很少讨论制度改革的路径。好的制度虽然稳定了交易结构,减少了市场交易的不确定性,但制度改革可能涉及制度波动。如果制度波动增加了不确定性,就会削弱改革的好处。本文使用 2000-2015 年 89 个国家的样本,实证检验了制度波动对经济增长的影响。我们发现制度波动会降低经济增长,特别是在制度质量低、收入低的国家的自由化期间。事实上,波动率每增加一个标准差,增长率就会降低约 0.50 个百分点。这一发现对多种估计技术具有鲁棒性,并且忽略了变量偏差。提供的证据表明,这种影响部分是通过波动对私人投资的影响来调节的。这些结果支持政策制定者应该追求经济自由的先前工作,但我们的工作表明他们应该沿着稳定的改革道路来实现经济增长最大化。
更新日期:2019-03-22
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