Projecting population in a local community is especially important to deliver public good provisions such as health services, education and social security. In addition to the size of the population and its age distribution, sex and location are also of importance for understanding needs and developing future infrastructure plans and growth policies. The projection of labour force growth is particularly important as labour is one of the primary inputs of economic production. This study aims to project the distribution of the future Australian population and its detailed characteristics. We analyse the projection of labour force growth in Australia and the proportion of people born outside the country, both at the district level, as examples of the model’s capability and applications. The microsimulation model used is designed to capture a detailed picture of the demographic evolution of the Australian population given current population trends, while also enabling us to understand the spatial distribution of migrants among the future Australian population. We validate our projections by making comparisons with recently released census data from 2016. The validation procedures we use show that our model has managed to not only project the population for sub-state/territory regions but also its age distribution as well as whether a person was born outside Australia. However, although our projection of the total size of the labour force produces reasonably accurate results, we found that estimates of the growth of the labour force were not as reliable, as the model was unable to capture the current negative growth of the labour force that is reflected in recent census data.

中文翻译：

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预测澳大利亚各地区的空间人口和劳动力增长

在当地社区中进行人口预测对于提供诸如卫生服务，教育和社会保障等公共物品尤为重要。除了人口规模及其年龄分布，性别和地理位置对于理解需求以及制定未来的基础设施计划和增长政策也很重要。劳动力增长的预测尤其重要，因为劳动力是经济生产的主要投入之一。本研究旨在预测未来澳大利亚人口的分布及其详细特征。我们以地区能力为例，分析了澳大利亚劳动力增长的预测以及在地区一级在澳大利亚以外出生的人口的比例。所使用的微观模拟模型旨在捕获给定当前人口趋势的澳大利亚人口的人口变化的详细情况，同时还使我们能够了解未来澳大利亚人口中移民的空间分布。我们通过与2016年最新发布的人口普查数据进行比较来验证我们的预测。我们使用的验证程序表明，我们的模型不仅成功地预测了次州/地区的人口，而且还预测了其年龄分布以及是否有人在澳大利亚以外的地方出生。但是，尽管我们对劳动力总规模的预测得出了相当准确的结果，但我们发现，对劳动力增长的估计并不那么可靠，