This paper analyzes the time-varying impact of macroeconomic forces on the synchronization in housing movements across all the U.S. states. Using a Bayesian modeling approach, the house price movements are decomposed into national, regional and state-specific factors. We then analyze the time-varying impact of macroeconomic forces on these national and regional factors. Evidence suggests that in several Western and Eastern states the house price variations are dominated by the national factor, whereas the regional factor dominates the Southern and Midwestern markets. These factors are found to have a time-varying relationship with most macroeconomic indicators with particularly pronounced time-variation caused by national house prices, inflation rate and consumer sentiments.

中文翻译：

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模拟美国各州的房价同步及其随时间变化的宏观经济联系

本文分析了宏观经济力量对美国所有州住房流动同步性的时变影响。使用贝叶斯建模方法，房价走势被分解为国家，地区和州的特定因素。然后，我们分析了宏观经济力量对这些国家和地区因素的时变影响。有证据表明，在一些西部和东部州，房价变化受国家因素主导，而区域因素则主导南部和中西部市场。发现这些因素与大多数宏观经济指标具有时变关系，其中特别明显的时变是由国家房价，通货膨胀率和消费者情绪引起的。