Abstract During the last years, the German energy sector and especially its electricity market was affected by a major energy transition, the so called „Energiewende“. This transition led to an increase of electricity production from renewable sources and thereby affected the whole electricity market. Therefore, it provides lessons for countries, which are only beginning a similar transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The aim of this analysis is to assess if there still exists a relationship between fossil fuel and electricity prices. Due to possible structural breaks in the time series a minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) stationarity test is applied, which endogenously determines possible structural breaks. Subsequently a bootstrap approach is used to estimate confidence intervals (C.I.s) for the test statistic and the possible break dates. Furthermore, the stability of the cointegration vector is assessed with the test by Hansen and Johansen (1999. “Some Tests for Parameter Constancy in Cointegrated VAR-Models.” The Econometrics Journal 2 (2):306–333.). The results indicate that the cointegration relationship is not stable over time. To incorporate these findings, the cointegration analysis is based on Johansen Mosconi, and Nielsen (2000. “Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend.” Econometrics Journal 3 (2):216–249), which allows structural breaks in the deterministic part of the cointegration relation. These results support the assumption that the energy transition affected the relationship between fossil fuels and electricity prices, although there still exists a relatively strong cointegration relation between fossil fuel and electricity prices in the long run.

中文翻译：

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他们还很重要吗？–鉴于可再生能源发电量的增加，化石燃料对电价的影响

摘要在过去的几年中，德国的能源部门，尤其是电力市场受到重大能源转型的影响，即所谓的“ Energiewende”。这一转变导致可再生能源发电量增加，从而影响了整个电力市场。因此，它为那些刚刚开始从化石燃料向可再生能源过渡的国家提供了教训。该分析的目的是评估化石燃料和电价之间是否仍然存在关系。由于时间序列中可能发生结构性断裂，因此应用了最小拉格朗日乘数（LM）平稳性测试，该测试由内生地确定了可能的结构性断裂。随后，使用自举方法来估计置信区间（CI s）测试统计信息和可能的休息日期。此外，通过Hansen和Johansen的检验（1999年，“协整VAR模型中参数常数的某些检验”，《计量经济学杂志》 2（2）：306-333。）评估了协整向量的稳定性。结果表明协整关系随着时间的推移是不稳定的。为了整合这些发现，协整分析基于Johansen Mosconi和Nielsen（2000年。“确定性趋势中存在结构性断裂时的协整分析。” Econometrics Journal 3（2）：216–249），它允许结构性断裂在协整关系的确定性部分。这些结果支持以下假设：能源转型影响了化石燃料与电价之间的关系，