Research on the effects of terrorism mostly focuses on the coercive effects of violence on the macrolevel, while other effects like provocation, particularly on the microlevel, do not receive the same attention. In this article, we seek to address previous omissions. We argue that terrorism can provoke ordinary people into a violent reaction. By reducing perceived security and creating a desire for revenge terrorism may lead civilians to attack uninvolved members of the terrorists’ constituency. Using geo-referenced data on terrorism (Global Terrorism Database) and violent riots (Social Conflict Analysis Database), we assess with a matched wake analysis if the treatment of terrorist violence against civilians causes an increase in violent behavior. The results of our analyses show that terrorism significantly increases violent riots. We thus conclude that terrorism can not only provoke governments but also civilians into an overreaction.

中文翻译：

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挑衅平民：恐怖主义对平民暴力的影响

对恐怖主义影响的研究主要集中在暴力对宏观层面的强制性影响上，而其他影响，如挑衅，特别是对微观层面的影响，则没有得到同样的关注。在本文中，我们试图解决以前的遗漏。我们认为，恐怖主义可以激起普通民众的暴力反应。通过降低公认的安全性并产生报复恐怖主义的愿望，可能导致平民攻击恐怖分子选区中不参与的成员。我们使用有关恐怖主义的地理参考数据（全球恐怖主义数据库）和暴力骚乱（社会冲突分析数据库），进行了匹配的唤醒分析，评估了针对平民的恐怖主义暴力行为是否导致暴力行为增加。我们的分析结果表明，恐怖主义大大加剧了暴力骚乱。