This article develops a spatial model of internal and external forced migration. We propose a model reminiscent of Hotelling’s spatial model in economics and Schelling’s model of segregation. Conflict is modeled as a shock that hits a country at certain location and generates displacement of people located near the shock’s location. Some displaced people cross a border, thus becoming refugees, while others remain as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). The model delivers predictions about how the fractions of a country’s population that become refugees and IDPs ought to be related with the intensity of the shock, country size, terrain ruggedness and the degree of geographical proximity of the country with respect to the rest of the world. The predictions of the model are then tested against real data using a panel of 161 countries covering the period 1995-2016. The empirical evidence is mostly in line with the predictions of the model.

中文翻译：

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内部流离失所和强迫迁徙的空间模型

本文开发了内部和外部强制迁移的空间模型。我们提出了一个模型，让我们想起经济学中的Hotelling空间模型和Schelling的隔离模型。冲突被建模为一种冲击，它会冲击某个国家的某个位置，并导致靠近该冲击位置的人员流离失所。一些流离失所者越境，因此成为难民，而其他流离失所者仍然​​是国内流离失所者。该模型可以预测一个国家成为难民和国内流离失所者的人口比例应与冲击的强度，国家的规模，地形的崎and程度以及该国相对于世界其他地区的地理接近程度有关。然后，由涵盖1995-2016年期间的161个国家组成的小组针对真实数据对模型的预测进行了测试。经验证据大部分与模型的预测相符。