How does armed conflict affect accountability and political trust in democratic governments? To answer this question, we present quasi-experimental evidence based on survey data which, coincidentally, were collected in the days surrounding an unanticipated violent attack by a rebel group in Mali. The chance occurrence of the attack five days into the survey demarcates respondents into two groups surveyed before and after the attack and allows us to examine how the attack affected approval of politicians and trust in political institutions. Our results show that people mainly attribute responsibility to the president and not to parliament or local government, while trust in institutions is largely unaffected. We also show that these effects are strongest in the region of the attack. These findings suggest that voters in new democracies are capable of attributing responsibility to individual politicians and governments while maintaining trust in the fundamental political institutions of democracy.

中文翻译：

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政治信任，震惊和责任感：叛军袭击的准实验证据

武装冲突如何影响民主政府的问责制和政治信任？为了回答这个问题，我们根据调查数据提供了准实验证据，这些数据恰巧是在马里叛军意外袭击发生的几天收集的。在调查开始五天后发生的攻击机会将受访者分为两组，分别在攻击前后进行了调查，这使我们能够研究攻击如何影响政客的认可和对政治机构的信任。我们的结果表明，人们主要将责任归于总统，而不是议会或地方政府，而对机构的信任在很大程度上不受影响。我们还表明，这些影响在攻击区域最强。