Some theories predict that profits facilitate peace in illegal markets, while others predict that profits fuel violence. I provide empirical evidence from drug trafficking in Venezuela. Using original data, I compare lethal violence trends in municipalities near a major trafficking route to trends elsewhere, both before and after counternarcotics policy in neighboring Colombia increased the use of Venezuelan transport routes. For thirty years prior to this policy change, lethal violence trends were similar; afterward, outcomes diverged: violence increased more along the trafficking route than elsewhere. Together with qualitative accounts, these findings illuminate the conditions under which profits fuel violence in illegal markets.

中文翻译：

---

非法市场上的利润和暴力：委内瑞拉的证据

一些理论预测利润促进非法市场的和平，而另一些理论则预测利润助长了暴力。我提供了委内瑞拉毒品贩运的经验证据。在原始数据的基础上，我将邻国哥伦比亚的禁毒政策增加了委内瑞拉运输路线的使用前后，将主要贩运路线附近城市的致命暴力趋势与其他地方的趋势进行了比较。在这项政策改变之前的30年中，致命暴力趋势相似。之后，结果出现了分歧：沿着贩运路线的暴力增加幅度超过了其他地方。这些发现与定性说明一起，阐明了利润助长非法市场暴力行为的条件。