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The Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rates in the UK: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2020-0037
Ismet Gocer 1 , Serdar Ongan 2
Affiliation  

Abstract This study reconsiders the Fisher effect for the UK from a different methodological perspective. To this aim, the nonlinear ARDL model recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied over the periods of 1995M1-2008M9 and 2008M10-2018M1. This model decomposes the changes in original inflation series as two new series: increases and decreases in inflation rates. Hence, it enables us to examine the Fisher effect in terms of increases and decreases in inflation separately. The empirical findings support asymmetrically partial Fisher effects for the UK in the long-run only for the first period. Additionally, this study attempts to describe and introduce a different version of the partial effect concept for the first time for the UK.

中文翻译:

英国通货膨胀与利率之间的关系:非线性ARDL方法

摘要本研究从不同的方法学角度重新考虑了英国的费雪效应。为此,Shin等人最近开发了非线性ARDL模型。(2014)适用于1995M1-2008M9和2008M10-2018M1期间。该模型将原始通胀序列的变化分解为两个新序列:通胀率的上升和下降。因此,它使我们能够分别根据通货膨胀的增加和减少来检验费雪效应。从长远来看,经验结果仅支持英国的不对称费雪效应。此外,本研究试图在英国首次描述和介绍部分效果概念的不同版本。
更新日期:2020-09-01
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