Purpose

Under the current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic circumstances where the gold prices are increasing and the stocks are in free fall, this research aims to compare the returns of gold prices and Turkish real estate investment trust (T-REIT) index by covering the 2008 global financial crisis, 2018 Turkish currency crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis periods and examine the effects of the returns of gold and the T-REIT index on each other, a research area that has been limited in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

For the empirical analysis, vector auto regression model was used, and Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Granger causality tests were also conducted. The average returns were compared with the coefficient of variation analysis.

Findings

The results of the study exhibited that except for the 2008 global financial crisis period, 2018 Turkish currency crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis, the T-REIT index performs better than gold prices, but it is a riskier instrument, and both investment instruments do not affect the returns of each other. The segmentation of both instruments recommends the fund managers including both tools for diversification of a portfolio.

Research limitations/implications

In Turkey, gold prices are valued based on the fluctuations of the global gold prices, as well as the Turkish Lira/US Dollar currency exchange rates. The effect of the exchange rates may be considered in future studies, and the study may be conducted based on the USD values of the T-REIT index and global gold prices. Further studies may also include the comparison between the T-REIT index returns and a set of commodities such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. This study covered only the first five months of 2020 to analyze the COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis initial effects, and a successor study is also recommended by including more new data of the post-COVID-19 pandemic and comparing both results.

Practical implications

The results of the research are expected to contribute to the REIT literature and give insight to investors about their investment choices while including both investment tools in their portfolio, especially for the future conditions of the new COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis.

Social implications

The study may provide insight for individuals, especially those who are considering possible investment options in the Turkish real estate market in the post-COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

Originality/value

Gold and real estate have always been considered as important investment instruments. Gold is commonly accepted as a safe haven in the literature, and the REITs are considered as long-term investment instruments by many scholars. While gold prices increase in the windy periods, the returns of real estate investments have more cyclical movements based on mostly the macroeconomic conditions and its integration with stock markets, yet the real estate is a common long-term investment tool, especially because of the regular income it generates for the retirement years. By covering three crisis periods including the COVID-19 pandemic-based economic crisis effects, making research about two important investment tools would contribute to the literature, especially in which the studies in this area were very limited.

中文翻译：

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在土耳其投资黄金或房地产投资信托基金指数：来自全球金融危机，2018年土耳其货币危机和COVID-19危机的证据

目的

在当前的2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行情况下，黄金价格上涨且库存自由下跌，本研究旨在通过以下方法比较黄金价格和土耳其房地产投资信托（T-REIT）指数的回报涵盖了2008年全球金融危机，2018年土耳其货币危机和2020年基于COVID-19大流行的经济危机时期，并研究了黄金回报率和T-REIT指数之间的相互影响，这是一个受研究限制的领域。文学。

设计/方法/方法

为了进行实证分析，使用了向量自回归模型，并且还进行了增广的Dickey-Fuller和Granger因果检验。将平均收益与变异系数分析进行比较。

发现

研究结果表明，除了2008年全球金融危机时期，2018年土耳其货币危机和2020年COVID-19大流行性经济危机之外，T-REIT指数的表现要好于金价，但它是一个风险较高的工具，并且两种投资工具都不会影响彼此的收益。两种工具的细分均建议基金管理人同时包括两种工具，以实现投资组合的多元化。

研究局限/意义

在土耳其，黄金价格是根据全球黄金价格的波动以及土耳其里拉/美元汇率计算的。将来的研究中可能会考虑汇率的影响，并且可以基于T-REIT指数的美元价值和全球黄金价格进行研究。进一步的研究还可能包括T-REIT指数回报率与一组商品（例如高盛商品指数）之间的比较。这项研究仅涵盖2020年的前五个月，以分析基于COVID-19大流行的经济危机的初步影响，并且还建议通过包括更多有关COVID-19后大流行的新数据并比较这两个结果的后续研究。

实际影响

预期研究结果将有助于REIT文献，并为投资者提供有关其投资选择的见解，同时将两种投资工具都包括在其投资组合中，尤其是针对新的基于COVID-19大流行的经济危机的未来状况。

社会影响

该研究可以为个人提供见识，尤其是那些正在考虑在COVID-19大流行之后的危机中在土耳其房地产市场中进行可能的投资选择的个人。

创意/价值

黄金和房地产一直被视为重要的投资工具。在文献中，黄金是公认的避风港，而房地产投资信托基金被许多学者视为长期投资工具。尽管在大风时期黄金价格上涨，但房地产投资的回报主要基于宏观经济条件及其与股票市场的整合而具有更多的周期性变动，然而房地产是一种常见的长期投资工具，尤其是由于定期投资的原因。它为退休年产生的收入。通过涵盖三个危机时期，包括基于COVID-19大流行的经济危机影响，对两种重要投资工具的研究将为文献做出贡献，尤其是在该领域的研究非常有限的情况下。