Abstract

Why are existing global governance structures “not fit for purpose” when it comes to addressing complex global catastrophic risks (CGCRs) such as climate breakdown, ecosystem collapse, or parasitic artificial general intelligence? This article argues that a deeper appreciation of these risks as complex—as opposed to complicated—is vital to an effective global governance response. It joins other IR scholarship seeking to invigorate a rigorous research agenda on complex system dynamics within world politics, highlighting the value of complexity theory, not simply as a contextual descriptor, but as a conceptual toolkit to inform CGCR governance research and action. Taking seriously the implications of “restricted complexity,” it interrogates why the legacy governing toolkit—the assumptions, heuristics, models, and practices conventionally employed to solve international collective action problems—are unlikely to suffice. It further draws laterally upon design science to offer a novel design model for governing complex systems, with broad application across global policy domains. A case study of the COVID-19 pandemic response illustrates the importance of supplementing inherited “complicated” governance system design and practices with design principles explicitly oriented to working with complexity, rather than against it. We contend that IR scholars and practitioners must update old ways of thinking in light of a complexification of the discipline. Such a shift involves both revisiting the design logics underlying how we build global governance structures, as well as pursuing a generative research agenda more capable of responding adequately to instability, surprise, and extraordinary change.

中文翻译：

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治理复杂性：复杂全球灾难性风险治理的设计原则

摘要

为什么现有的全球治理结构在解决复杂的全球灾难性风险 (CGCR)（例如气候崩溃、生态系统崩溃或寄生的通用人工智能）时“不合目的”？本文认为，更深入地了解这些风险是复杂的——而不是复杂的——对于有效的全球治理响应至关重要。它与其他 IR 奖学金一起寻求激发关于世界政治中复杂系统动力学的严格研究议程，强调复杂性理论的价值，不仅作为上下文描述，而且作为为 CGCR 治理研究和行动提供信息的概念工具包。认真对待“受限复杂性”的含义，它询问了为什么遗留管理工具包——假设、启发式、模型、传统上用于解决国际集体行动问题的做法不太可能足够。它进一步横向借鉴设计科学，为管理复杂系统提供一种新颖的设计模型，并在全球政策领域得到广泛应用。一项针对 COVID-19 大流行应对措施的案例研究说明了用明确面向复杂性而非反对复杂性的设计原则补充继承的“复杂”治理系统设计和实践的重要性。我们认为，鉴于学科的复杂化，IR 学者和从业者必须更新旧的思维方式。这种转变涉及重新审视我们如何构建全球治理结构的设计逻辑，