We contribute to the debate on NATO expansion in two ways that depart from standard practice: we make explicit the theoretical models that this debate demands; and we carefully trace Russian discourse and behavior through time. We show that NATO centrality rather than simply NATO expansion is the root issue. It best captures the historical origins of the problem and is most consistent with the Russian evidence. We demonstrate that Russia’s cooperative moves vis-à-vis NATO were premised upon Moscow’s strongly revisionist preferences regarding the European security architecture. We argue that the US–NATO–Russia spiral is best understood as an offensive-realist tragedy as opposed to a security dilemma or a standoff between one pure security-seeking state and one greedy expansionist. The key protagonists were both revisionists whose preferences and grand strategies brought them into conflict. Central to the whole story is not classical territorial security threats, but much broader conceptions of security.

中文翻译：

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美俄关系悲剧：北约中心地位和修正主义者的螺旋式上升

我们以两种背离标准惯例的方式为北约扩张辩论做出了贡献：我们明确了这场辩论所需的理论模型；我们会仔细追踪俄罗斯话语和行为的时间。我们证明，北约的中心地位而不是北约的扩张是根本问题。它最能说明问题的历史渊源，并且与俄罗斯的证据最一致。我们证明，俄罗斯相对于北约的合作行动是以莫斯科对欧洲安全体系的强烈修正主义偏好为前提的。我们认为，最好将美国-北约-俄罗斯螺旋式理解为进攻现实主义者的悲剧，而不是一个安全困境或一个纯粹的寻求安全的国家与一个贪婪的扩张主义者之间的僵持。关键人物都是修正主义者，他们的偏好和宏大的战略使他们陷入冲突。整个故事的重点不是传统的领土安全威胁，而是更广泛的安全概念。