It is often claimed that NATO’s post-Cold War geographic enlargement threatened Russian security interests and caused the downturn in Russia’s relations with the West. This article unpacks and challenges that causal claim, making three basic arguments. First, NATO enlargement made the alliance weaker. Russia knew this and did not react militarily to any perceived threat from Europe until after it seized Crimea in 2014. Second, the downturn in Russia’s relationship with the West was overdetermined and most likely caused by Russia’s reaction to its own declining influence in the world. While NATO’s geographic enlargement aggravated this situation, it was probably not the most significant causal factor. Third, while Russia certainly reacted negatively to NATO enlargement right from the start, the reaction was manipulated and magnified by both the nationalist opposition, and Vladimir Putin’s regime, to serve domestic political interests.

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北约扩大：评估其在俄罗斯的后果

人们通常认为，北约在冷战后的地理扩张威胁着俄罗斯的安全利益，并导致俄罗斯与西方关系的低迷。本文提出了因果断言并对其提出挑战，提出了三个基本论点。首先，北约的扩大使同盟变弱了。俄罗斯知道这一点，直到2014年占领克里米亚之后才对欧洲的任何威胁采取军事行动。其次，俄罗斯与西方关系的低迷是过分确定的，很可能是由于俄罗斯对其自身在世界上影响力下降的反应所致。尽管北约的地域扩大加剧了这种情况，但这可能不是最重要的因果关系。第三，尽管俄罗斯从一开始就肯定对北约的扩张作出了消极反应，