This study quantifies animal spirits by constructing an index using information from major sectors of the economy. The key drivers of the animal spirits are the monetary/fiscal policies and the stage of the business cycle and therefore the effect of these drivers on animal spirits is also estimated. Furthermore, the effect of changes in the animal spirits index is generated to examine which sector is affected the most by animal spirits. In other words, we test whether animal spirits produce asymmetric effects on the economy.Our work suggests a policy change (and a shock/recession) produces dual effects on the economy which are (a) direct effects and (b) indirect effects, which is brought about by animal spirits. Therefore, it is crucial for policymakers to estimate the direct and indirect effects of policy changes as well as shocks/recessions on the economy to gauge the accumulative effect, rendering them more to design effective policies.

中文翻译：

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动物精神、经济政策和商业周期：经济世界的三个火枪手

这项研究通过使用来自主要经济部门的信息构建一个指数来量化动物精神。动物精神的关键驱动因素是货币/财政政策和商业周期的阶段，因此也估计了这些驱动因素对动物精神的影响。此外，还生成了动物精神指数变化的影响，以检查哪个部门受动物精神的影响最大。换句话说，我们测试动物精神是否对经济产生不对称影响。我们的工作表明政策变化（以及冲击/衰退）对经济产生双重影响，即（a）直接影响和（b）间接影响，其中是由动物精神带来的。所以，