Abstract We investigate how changes in the composition of tax revenue affect long-run growth in a broad cross-section of countries. To do this, we construct a new dataset that covers 70 countries (23 high-, 23 middle- and 24 low-income countries), with at least 20 years of observations during the period 1970-2009. In the context of revenue-neutral reallocations, we find that increasing consumption and property taxes while reducing income taxes boosts long-term growth. Among income taxes, we find that social security contributions and personal income taxes tend to have a stronger negative association with growth relative to corporate income taxes. Results, however, depend on countries’ development levels, suggesting nonlinearities in the relation between taxes and growth even after controlling for convergence effects. Although results are robust for high- and middle-income countries, these are generally not significant for low-income countries.

中文翻译：

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税收构成与增长：跨国视角

摘要我们研究了税收构成的变化如何影响广泛国家的长期增长。为此，我们构建了一个涵盖70个国家（23个高收入国家，23个中等收入国家和24个低收入国家）的新数据集，并在1970-2009年期间进行了至少20年的观测。在与收入无关的重新分配的背景下，我们发现增加消费税和财产税，同时减少所得税可以促进长期增长。在所得税中，我们发现，与公司所得税相比，社会保障缴费和个人所得税往往与增长之间具有更强的负相关性。然而，结果取决于各国的发展水平，这表明即使控制了趋同效应，税收与增长之间的关系也是非线性的。