Simultaneous with the rise of trade protectionism in the twenty-first century has been a resurgence in nationalist politics, most notably in the USA, the UK, and parts of the EU. These developments in international and US trade policy, including Washington’s launch of a full-fledged trade war against China in March 2018, have converged disastrously with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in November 2019 and the onset of a worldwide pandemic. Given the status of the USA as the world’s hegemon since 1945, what is new here is the effort of the Trump administration to abdicate US leadership, jettison longstanding alliances, and turn back the clock on the country’s close integration with the world economy. Already, greatly reduced flows of goods, services, and people have translated into radically reduced global growth, widespread business disruptions, and high unemployment. Remarkably, the White House has refused to recognize the severity of the pandemic and has undermined the precautions of the US science community. We argue that these multiple shocks constitute a major critical juncture on par with what the world community faced in 1945. However, in the twenty-first century we have seen that high levels of economic uncertainty and political instability have superseded the long-held notion that international interdependence would pull the world community through tough times such as these. Could the triple whammy of a destructive trade war, deadly pandemic, and secular decline of US leadership trigger a new generation of policy innovation and institution building on par with the post-1945 era? In terms of the global trade regime, it would be difficult to imagine a buoyant recovery of the world economy in the absence of a serious reckoning with the pattern of norm erosion that we identify here.

在二十一世纪与贸易保护主义兴起同时出现的是民族主义政治的复兴，尤其是在美国，英国和部分欧盟国家。国际和美国贸易政策的这些发展，包括华盛顿于2018年3月发动全面的贸易战，与2019年11月新型冠状病毒的爆发以及全球性大流行的爆发相融合，造成了灾难性的后果。鉴于自1945年以来美国一直是世界霸主的地位，这里的新变化是特朗普政府做出的退位美国领导层，放弃长期联盟的努力，以及使该国与世界经济紧密结合的时光倒流。大量减少的商品，服务和人员流动已经转化为全球增长的急剧下降，广泛的业务中断和高失业率。值得注意的是，白宫拒绝承认这种大流行的严重性，并破坏了美国科学界的防范措施。我们认为，这些多重冲击构成了与1945年国际社会相提并论的重大关键时刻。但是，在二十一世纪，我们已经看到，高度的经济不确定性和政治动荡已经取代了长期以来的观念国际相互依存将使国际社会度过诸如此类的艰难时期。毁灭性的贸易战，致命的大流行以及美国领导层的长期衰落三重打击是否会引发与1945年后时代相同的新一代政策创新和体制建设？就全球贸易体制而言，