We investigate the drivers of lapses in life insurance contracts of a large Italian insurance company. We consider both traditional (with profit or participating) and unit-linked policies. We develop two different types of analyses. First of all, we investigate the determinants of lapse decisions by policyholders looking at microdata on each contract and some macroeconomic variables. Then, through a panel study, we investigate the role of macroeconomic variables on lapses at the regional level. We observe that policy features affecting lapses of the two types of contracts are quite different. Only for the contracts stipulated few years before, we find weak evidence supporting the Interest Rate Hypothesis, i.e. a positive correlation between interest and lapse rates. Instead, there is some positive evidence that lapse rates are positively related to personal financial/economic difficulties (emergency fund hypothesis).

中文翻译：

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意大利人寿保险市场失效率的决定因素

我们调查了一家大型意大利保险公司的人寿保险合同失效的驱动因素。我们同时考虑传统的（有利润或参与）政策和与单位相关的政策。我们开发了两种不同类型的分析。首先，我们调查保单持有人的延误决定因素，这些决定者查看每份合约的微观数据和一些宏观经济变量。然后，通过小组研究，我们研究了宏观经济变量在区域层面上失误的作用。我们观察到，影响两种类型合同失效的政策特征完全不同。仅对于几年前签订的合同，我们发现支持利率假说的证据薄弱，即利率与失误率之间呈正相关。反而，