Economic diversification is recognized in literature as a strong determinant of economic development. The relationship between economic diversification and human development (social welfare), however, is not conclusive. High level of diversification can improve social welfare by providing a large range of alternatives to economic agents. On the contrary, it can also increase complexity of the decision making and hence negatively affecting social welfare. Using data for 20 European countries from 1996 to 2010, we found evidence for positive welfare effects of economic diversification in Central and Eastern European Countries suggesting that diversification is especially important for social welfare in transition economies. Our results hold for all three types of diversification indices (related, unrelated and overall diversification) and are robust to the selection of industries and lag specifications. For the full sample, variety only affects human development after a significant lag. More specifically, in the long run, overall variety improves social welfare while related variety reduces it. A negative relationship between related variety and human development is attributable to obsolescence of skills when new sectors replace existing ones. Such is not the case with unrelated variety as sectors are by definition unrelated to each other and therefore new sectors are less likely to replace old ones.

中文翻译：

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欧洲的经济多元化与人类发展

文学中公认经济多样化是经济发展的重要决定因素。但是，经济多样化与人类发展（社会福利）之间的关系不是结论性的。高度多样化可以通过为经济主体提供多种替代方案来改善社会福利。相反，它也可能增加决策的复杂性，从而对社会福利产生负面影响。利用1996年至2010年欧洲20个国家的数据，我们发现了中欧和东欧国家经济多元化对福利产生积极影响的证据，表明多元化对于转型经济体的社会福利尤为重要。我们的结果适用于所有三种类型的多元化指数（相关，无关的和整体的多元化），并且对选择行业和滞后指标非常有帮助。对于完整样本，多样性仅在明显滞后后才影响人类发展。更具体地说，从长远来看，总体多样性可以改善社会福利，而相关多样性则可以减少社会福利。当新部门取代现有部门时，相关品种与人类发展之间的消极关系可归因于技能的过时。无关品种的情况则不是这样，因为按照定义，部门之间是彼此不相关的，因此新部门不太可能取代旧部门。总体多样性改善了社会福利，而相关多样性则降低了社会福利。当新部门取代现有部门时，相关品种与人类发展之间的消极关系可归因于技能的过时。无关品种的情况并非如此，因为根据定义，部门之间是彼此不相关的，因此新部门不太可能取代旧部门。总体多样性改善了社会福利，而相关多样性则降低了社会福利。当新部门取代现有部门时，相关品种与人类发展之间的消极关系可归因于技能的过时。无关品种的情况并非如此，因为根据定义，部门之间是彼此不相关的，因此新部门不太可能取代旧部门。