ABSTRACT

With rising energy demand in Asia, the high potential for hydropower development and the need for low-carbon energy development, hydropower would seem to have a significant role in South Asia’s energy future. However, the extent of hydropower development will depend on several risk factors, including the cost of alternative energy sources, the environmental sustainability of hydropower and social issues of equitable development. Using a risk-analysis framework, it is concluded that the future of hydropower will depend on how well policies and institutions manage the risks, facilitate efficient financial markets, and promote fair and friendly cross-border electricity trade.

摘要

随着亚洲能源需求的增长，水电开发的巨大潜力以及对低碳能源发展的需求，水电似乎在南亚的能源未来中发挥着重要作用。但是，水电发展的程度将取决于若干风险因素，包括替代能源的成本，水电的环境可持续性以及公平发展的社会问题。使用风险分析框架得出的结论是，水电的未来将取决于政策和机构如何良好地管理风险，促进有效的金融市场以及促进公平和友好的跨境电力贸易。