In 2015, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources changed size and harvest limits for catfishes (Blue Catfish Ictalurus furcatus, Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris, and Channel Catfish I. punctatus) in the lower Ohio River to match those of neighboring states. The new regulations imposed a daily limit of one 88.9‐cm (35‐in) or larger Blue or Flathead Catfish per fisher, one 71.1‐cm (28‐in) or larger Channel Catfish per fisher, and a 33.0‐cm (13‐in) minimum length limit for all species, with no harvest restrictions between these limit lengths (permissive slot). When these management regulations were implemented, potential efficacy was unknown. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential effects of these regulations using the limited data for baseline demographic parameters. Bayesian modeling was used to estimate growth and mortality because of the ability to estimate derived functions of parameters and associated uncertainty (as credible intervals). Yield‐per‐recruit (YPR) modeling was used to estimate and evaluate the fishing mortality rates (F) that would induce growth overfishing (F_MAX) and the yield at F_MAX (YPR_MAX) for three management scenarios: no harvest restrictions (former regulation), a 33.0‐cm minimum length limit, and the enacted permissive slot limits. Model results suggested that catfish stocks are unlikely to benefit from current regulations given the near‐complete overlap of YPR_MAX credible intervals for all estimable scenarios and the small significant differences (1–3%) based on F_MAX between the most permissive and most restrictive scenarios. Despite the existence of significant differences in F_MAX, they are likely biologically irrelevant based on the life histories of these species. Although modeling results suggested that the implemented harvest regulations will not likely affect catfish population demographics or fishery yield in the lower Ohio River, a post hoc evaluation examining the accuracy of these predictions is needed and would improve the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates.

中文翻译：

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用贝叶斯估计法评估数据受限的fish鱼渔业中最近实施的收获规定

2015年，伊利诺伊州自然资源部更改了cat鱼（蓝Cat鱼Ictalurus furcatus，平头Cat鱼Pylodictis olivaris和海Channel鱼I. punctatus）的大小和收获限制）在俄亥俄河下游，以与邻近州匹配。新法规规定每位渔民每天限制捕捞一只88.9厘米（35英寸）或更大的蓝头Flat鱼，每位渔民每天限制捕食71.1厘米（28英寸）或更大的海Cat鱼，并限制每天捕捞33.0厘米（13英寸） in）所有物种的最小长度限制，在这些限制长度之间没有收获限制（允许的狭缝）。当实施这些管理规定时，潜在的疗效尚不清楚。这项研究的目标是使用有限的基线人口统计数据数据来评估这些法规的潜在影响。贝叶斯模型用于估计生长和死亡率，因为它能够估计参数的派生函数以及相关的不确定性（作为可靠区间）。˚F），将诱导生长过度捕捞（˚F _MAX），并且在屈服˚F _MAX（YPR _MAX），用于三个管理场景：没有收获限制（前调节），一个33.0厘米的最小长度的限制，和颁布许可槽限制。模型结果表明，鉴于所有可估计情况下的YPR _MAX可信区间几乎完全重叠，以及基于_最大允许和最大限制性的基于F _MAX的小显着差异（1-3％），cat鱼种群不太可能从当前法规中受益场景。尽管F _MAX存在显着差异，根据这些物种的生活史，它们可能与生物学无关。尽管建模结果表明，已实施的捕捞法规不会影响俄亥俄州河下游的demo鱼种群统计数据或渔业产量，但仍需要进行事后评估，以检查这些预测的准确性，这将提高参数估计的准确性和准确性。