Unified growth theory advances that the transition from a Malthusian regime to sustained economic growth is characterized by technological progress and, amongst other things, by an increase in demand for human capital which in turn creates incentives for lower fertility rates. Bearing that in mind, I ask the question: has southern Africa escaped the Malthusian stagnation? Specifically, I study whether primary school completion rates have played any role in total fertility rates in all countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the 1980–2009 period. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the results, based on dynamic panel time‐series methods, suggest that primary education is associated with lower fertility in the SADC, or that the community is already trading‐off quantity for quality of children. Although I do not claim causality, overall the results are significant because, in accordance with unified growth theory, they suggest that the SADC is experiencing its own transition from the Malthusian stagnation epoch into sustained growth, or that the SADC is going through its own post‐Malthusian regime.

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初等教育和生育率

统一增长理论提出，从马尔萨斯政权过渡到持续的经济增长的特征是技术进步，尤其是对人力资本的需求增加，这反过来又促使人们降低了生育率。考虑到这一点，我问一个问题：南部非洲是否摆脱了马尔萨斯的停滞？具体来说，我研究了1980年至2009年期间，南部非洲发展共同体（SADC）所有国家的小学毕业率是否在总生育率中发挥了作用。与传统观点相反，基于动态面板时间序列方法的结果表明，初等教育与南部非洲发展共同体的低生育率有关，或者该社区已经在权衡儿童质量。