This article argues that on balance globalization does not increase, and may even reduce, the opportunity cost of Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs), as measured by foregone merchandise trade. Specifically, globalization makes it easier for states to substitute trade partners, makes it difficult to employ trade sanctions, makes credit more available to states at conflict, and encourages trade-substituting horizontal Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and sanctions-resilient vertical FDI. Hypotheses are supported using High Dimensional Fixed Effects regression, applied to a Gravity model, with two-way clustering of standard errors, and an analysis of the effect of globalization on the marginal effect of MIDs on international trade. This suggests that while wars are becoming infrequent in recent decades, due to other factors, trade’s contribution to peace is diminishing.

中文翻译：

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全球化与战时贸易

本文认为，总体而言，全球化并不会增加，甚至可能减少军事国家间争端（MID）的机会成本（以已放弃的商品贸易衡量）。具体而言，全球化使国家更容易替代贸易伙伴，难以实施贸易制裁，使冲突国家更容易获得信贷，并鼓励贸易替代水平的外国直接投资（FDI）和制裁灵活的垂直FDI。假设使用高维固定效应回归方法进行支持，该回归方法应用于重力模型，并通过标准误差的两步聚类，并分析了全球化对MID对国际贸易的边际效应的影响。这表明，由于其他因素，近几十年来战争变得不多见，