What is the relationship between rebel governance and rebel military strength? Most existing research assumes that rebel governance enhances the military strength of the rebel group. I test this assumption with an original dataset of rebel governance services. The quantitative evidence presents a more complicated picture that belies a straightforward link between the two: governance appears to have either no relationship with rebel strength and sometimes even a negative and statistically significant relationship with rebel military capacity. To explain this surprising result, I generate a set of empirically grounded mechanisms using case vignettes that incorporate primary and secondary data. As a whole, the paper calls for greater theorizing and testing of the consequences of rebel governance, as well as the strategic motivations for its implementation.

中文翻译：

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反叛者治理：军事上的好处还是军事上的失败？（艾萨德奖文章）

叛军治理与叛军军事力量之间有什么关系？现有的大多数研究都假设叛军的治理可以增强叛军的军事实力。我用叛军治理服务的原始数据集测试了这个假设。定量证据提供了更为复杂的图景，这两者之间存在直接联系：治理似乎与反叛力量没有任何关系，有时甚至与反叛军事力量之间也没有消极的关系，而且在统计上也很重要。为了解释这个令人惊讶的结果，我使用结合了主要和次要数据的案例小插图生成了一组基于经验的机制。总体而言，本文呼吁对叛军治理的后果进行更大的理论化和测试，