This paper revisits, by means of both time series and panel data analyses, the empirical regularity identified by Okun’s (in: Proceedings of the business and economics statistics section, American Statistical Association, Washington, DC, 98–103, 1962) seminal paper. Based on a sample of 85 advanced and developing economies between 1978 and 2014, we confirm the existence of an average negative and statistically significant Okun’s relationship. At the same time, results suggest that the relation varies substantially across countries and times. Finally, we identify several factors affecting the variation in Okun’s coefficient across and within countries. Across countries, the relationship is stronger in countries with higher average unemployment, a larger share of public employment, lower informality and smaller agricultural sectors, and one that is more diversified. Within countries, in addition to some of these factors, we find that deregulation in labor and product markets and recessions have strengthened the response of unemployment to the business cycle.

中文翻译：

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关于奥肯定律的决定因素：来自时变估计的新证据

本文通过时间序列和面板数据分析，重新审视了奥肯（在：商业和经济统计会议录部分，美国统计协会，华盛顿特区，98-103，1962 年）开创性论文中确定的经验规律。基于 1978 年至 2014 年间 85 个发达经济体和发展中经济体的样本，我们确认存在平均负和统计显着的奥肯定关系。同时，结果表明，这种关系在不同国家和时间之间存在很大差异。最后，我们确定了影响国家之间和国家内部奥肯定系数变化的几个因素。在各国之间，平均失业率较高、公共就业份额较大、非正规性较低和农业部门较小的国家，这种关系更为紧密，以及更加多样化的一种。在国家内部，除了其中一些因素之外，我们发现劳动力和产品市场的放松管制以及经济衰退加强了失业对商业周期的反应。