An on-going period of secular stagnation in advanced economies has brought down interest rates, growth rates and inflation. Due to the relatively larger fall in interest rates, the differential between the interest rate paid on government debt and the output growth rate (IRGD) became lower and has even turned negative in most advanced economies. In such an environment, public debt may come at much lower (or even no) cost. Thus, if this pattern remains stable, it has important implications on the role of fiscal policy. Against this background, this paper discusses relevant long-term trends in Europe and aims to explain the currently low IRGD. Furthermore, it investigates possible future IRGD paths and its consequences for fiscal policy.

中文翻译：

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长期停滞时代的财政政策

发达经济体持续的长期停滞期降低了利率、增长率和通货膨胀率。由于利率降幅相对较大，政府债务支付的利率与产出增长率（IRGD）之间的差异越来越小，在大多数发达经济体中甚至变成了负数。在这种环境下，公共债务的成本可能会低得多（甚至没有）。因此，如果这种模式保持稳定，将对财政政策的作用产生重要影响。在此背景下，本文讨论了欧洲的相关长期趋势，旨在解释目前较低的 IRGD。此外，它还调查了未来可能的 IRGD 路径及其对财政政策的影响。