ABSTRACT:Real risk-free interest rates have trended down over the past 30 years. Puzzlingly, in light of this decline, (1) the return on private capital has remained stable or even increased, creating an increasing wedge with safe interest rates; (2) stock market valuation ratios have increased only moderately; (3) and investment has been lackluster. We use a simple extension of the neoclassical growth model to diagnose the nexus of forces that jointly accounts for these developments. We find that rising market power, rising unmeasured intangibles, and rising risk premia play a crucial role, over and above the traditional culprits of increasing savings supply and technological growth slowdown.

中文翻译：

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宏观金融趋势的会计：市场力量，无形资产和风险溢价

摘要：过去30年中，实际的无风险利率呈下降趋势。令人困惑的是，鉴于这种下降，（1）私人资本的回报率一直保持稳定甚至增加，从而在安全利率的作用下增加了楔形；（2）股市估值比率仅适度上升；（3）投资一直乏善可陈。我们使用新古典主义增长模型的简单扩展来诊断共同解释这些发展的力量联系。我们发现，除了传统的增加储蓄供给和技术增长放缓的罪魁祸首之外，不断增长的市场力量，不断上升的无形资产和不断上升的风险溢价起着至关重要的作用。