ABSTRACT:The fact that declines in output since the Great Recession have been parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. We show that real-time estimates of potential output for the United States and other countries respond gradually and similarly to both transitory and permanent shocks to output. Observing revisions in measures of potential output therefore tells us little about whether changes in actual output will be permanent. Some alternative methodologies to estimate potential output can avoid these shortcomings. These approaches suggest a much more limited decline in potential output since the Great Recession.

中文翻译：

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潜在产出估算中的循环敏感性

摘要：自大萧条以来，产量下降已被分解为潜在产量的等值下降，这一事实通常被解释为暗示产量不会恢复以前的趋势。我们显示，对美国和其他国家/地区的潜在产出的实时估算会逐渐且类似地对产出的暂时性和永久性冲击作出反应。因此，观察潜在产出量度的修订并不能告诉我们实际产出的变化是否将是永久性的。估计潜在产出的一些替代方法可以避免这些缺点。这些方法表明自大萧条以来潜在产出的下降幅度要有限得多。