Abstract We develop a multivariate time series model of employment in 19 sectors for Australia We use this model to determine the long-run effect of a 1% increase in economic activity in any chosen sector on aggregate employment Our findings point to manufacturing and construction sectors as those that generate the largest positive spillovers for the aggregate economy Moreover, we provide an interactive web-based app that produces our model's forecasts based on any user-specified scenario As the restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic evolve, the sectoral employment multipliers together with these interactive tools will provide useful information for policymakers

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚的部门就业动态和 COVID-19 大流行

摘要 我们开发了澳大利亚 19 个部门就业的多元时间序列模型 我们使用该模型来确定任何选定部门的经济活动增加 1% 对总就业的长期影响 我们的研究结果指出制造业和建筑业是那些对总体经济产生最大积极溢出效应的应用程序此外，我们提供了一个基于网络的交互式应用程序，该应用程序可根据任何用户指定的场景生成我们的模型预测随着与 COVID-19 大流行相关的限制的发展，部门就业乘数一起这些互动工具将为决策者提供有用的信息