Abstract This paper estimates growth models for a panel of 15 Asian countries during 40-plus years from the early 1970s to 2014. The focus then shifts to Malaysia for which an annual time-series model is also estimated for the same time period. Both types of models indicate significant influence of human capital either directly on output growth or on growth through total factor productivity. We find that the lower the development level of a country (i.e., a greater income gap), the greater the total factor productivity growth which therefore permits faster income convergence. There is some evidence of interaction between human capital and the income gap as well which leads to an even bigger impact of human capital on total factor productivity growth. The interaction between human capital and openness produces a greater effect on growth in Malaysia based on the time-series model than its effect based on the panel model. Our results suggest that, barring large external shocks, a continued focus on human capital development should help to prevent growth slowdown in Malaysia over the next 15 years.

中文翻译：

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以马来西亚增长为重点的亚洲实际 GDP 和全要素生产率增长

摘要 本文估计了从 1970 年代初到 2014 年的 40 多年间 15 个亚洲国家的增长模型。然后重点转移到马来西亚，也估计了同一时期的年度时间序列模型。两种类型的模型都表明人力资本对产出增长或通过全要素生产率增长的显着影响。我们发现一个国家的发展水平越低（即收入差距越大），全要素生产率增长越大，因此收入收敛速度越快。有一些证据表明人力资本与收入差距之间也存在相互作用，这导致人力资本对全要素生产率增长的影响更大。基于时间序列模型的人力资本和开放性之间的相互作用对马来西亚增长的影响大于基于面板模型的影响。我们的结果表明，除非出现巨大的外部冲击，否则继续关注人力资本开发应该有助于防止马来西亚在未来 15 年的增长放缓。