In mixed strategy games, the ability to randomize decisions is a critical strategic necessity, yet studies show that such rational behavior is sometimes elusive. This paper examines mixed strategy play in a natural setting, by looking at a pitcher’s decision to throw the ball to home plate or to throw it to first base in a pickoff play. In the absence of significant pressure, we find that pitchers can effectively randomize their sequence of choices to remain unpredictable, as mixed strategy Nash equilibriums require. However, in the face of pressure, some pitchers are less able to randomize their choices. Our paper is the first empirical study in the English language literature to find that decision makers are unable to randomize their strategic decisions when they face an increased cognitive load due to pressure.

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压力和随机决策的能力：美国职业棒球大联盟的选秀比赛案例

在混合策略游戏中，随机化决策的能力是至关重要的战略需求，但研究表明，这种理性行为有时难以捉摸。本文通过观察投手在挑球比赛中将球扔到本垒板或将球扔到一垒的决定，研究了自然环境中的混合策略比赛。在没有明显压力的情况下，我们发现投手可以有效地随机化他们的选择顺序以保持不可预测，正如混合策略纳什均衡所要求的。然而，在压力面前，一些投手不太能够随机化他们的选择。我们的论文是英语文献中的第一项实证研究，发现当决策者因压力而面临增加的认知负荷时，他们无法随机化他们的战略决策。