ABSTRACT

The aim of this investigation is to answer the crucial question of whether private military and security companies (PMSCs) affect conflict onset. It draws on the recently released Private Security Events Database, containing data on PMSC-related events across Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Employing a Cox Proportional Hazard model, the article explores whether the presence of PMSCs, the duration of PMSC presence, the type of service provided, and the number and type of clients affect conflict onset. Overall, the presence of PMSCs increases the likelihood of conflict onset, although its substantial effect was slight.

中文翻译：

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新业务的开始？1990 年至 2011 年拉丁美洲、非洲和东南亚的私营军事和安保公司与冲突爆发

摘要

本次调查的目的是回答私营军事和安保公司 (PMSC) 是否影响冲突爆发的关键问题。它利用了最近发布的私人安全事件数据库，其中包含拉丁美洲、非洲和东南亚 PMSC 相关事件的数据。本文采用 Cox 比例风险模型，探讨了 PMSC 的存在、PMSC 存在的持续时间、提供的服务类型以及客户的数量和类型是否会影响冲突的发生。总体而言，PMSC 的存在增加了冲突爆发的可能性，尽管其实质性影响很小。