ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to capture the dynamic interaction between the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 and its effect on the macroeconomy, in absence of widespread vaccination. We do that by building a stylized two-equations dynamical system in the COVID-19 positivity rate and the unemployment rate. The solution of the system makes the case for an endemic equilibrium of COVID-19 infections, thus producing waves in the two variables in the absence of widespread immunity through vaccination. Furthermore, we model the impact of the pandemic-driven unemployment shock on output, showing how the emergence of cyclical downswings could determine a L-shaped recession in the medium run, in absence of adequate stimulus policies. Moreover, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US. The simulation highlights the effects on unemployment and on overall economic activity produced by recurrent waves of COVID-19, which risk to jeopardize the coming back to the pre-crisis trend in the medium run.

摘要

本文旨在捕捉在没有广泛接种疫苗的情况下，COVID-19 的流行病学演变与其对宏观经济的影响之间的动态相互作用。我们通过在 COVID-19 阳性率和失业率中构建一个程式化的两方程动态系统来做到这一点。该系统的解决方案为 COVID-19 感染的地方平衡提供了理由，从而在没有通过疫苗接种广泛免疫的情况下在两个变量中产生波动。此外，我们模拟了大流行驱动的失业冲击对产出的影响，展示了在缺乏足够刺激政策的情况下，周期性下降的出现如何决定中期的 L 型衰退。此外，我们模拟模型，针对美国进行校准。