ABSTRACT

This article views analysis of the influence of capital–labour income distribution on economic growth from a historical perspective, using data from 1900 onwards. We study the three Scandinavian countries of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, where conventional accounts of the postwar growth miracles in these small, open economies have emphasized the role of wage restraint, favouring profits and investment over consumption. Instead, we show that the 1950s and 1960s saw growing wage shares, and use the Bhaduri–Marglin model to econometrically analyse the effects on consumption, investment, exports and imports and the total effects on GDP. Furthermore, we estimate the effects of wage pressure on labour productivity. Growing wage shares have had a small positive effect on GDP growth in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and the positive effect was larger in the postwar period than in other times. However, the positive growth effects of wage pressure were modest as the demand was only weakly wage-led. In contrast, supply side effects were large. Labour productivity was stimulated by vigorous wage increases, as argued by the Swedish Rehn–Meidner model as well as by post-Keynesian economists. The present investigation opens several further avenues for research on the distribution–growth nexus.

摘要

本文使用1900年以后的数据，从历史角度分析资本-劳动收入分配对经济增长的影响。我们研究了瑞典、丹麦和挪威这三个斯堪的纳维亚国家，在这些小而开放的经济体中，战后增长奇迹的传统描述强调了工资限制的作用，有利于利润和投资而不是消费。相反，我们展示了 1950 年代和 1960 年代工资份额的增长，并使用 Bhaduri-Marglin 模型从计量经济学上分析了对消费、投资、进出口的影响以及对 GDP 的总影响。此外，我们估计了工资压力对劳动生产率的影响。工资份额的增长对瑞典、丹麦和挪威的 GDP 增长产生了很小的积极影响，战后时期的积极影响比其他时期更大。然而，工资压力对增长的积极影响不大，因为需求只是微弱的工资带动。相比之下，供应方面的副作用很大。正如瑞典的 Rehn-Meidner 模型和后凯恩斯主义经济学家所论证的那样，工资的强劲增长刺激了劳动生产率。目前的调查为研究分布-增长关系开辟了一些进一步的途径。