Abstract

Concession period is decisive in public–private partnership (PPP) projects, particularly for complex projects. A systematic approach incorporating real option analysis (ROA) is proposed to optimise the concession under uncertainty. Options are explored to manage uncertainty in the long concession of PPP projects and an optimisation principle is proposed for the concession optimisation. Sensitivity analysis and case comparison are suggested to test the validity of the optimised concession. Applicability of the approach is tested with a PPP utility tunnel case, in which options to expand and recoup are investigated. Important findings include: (1) interests of participants are balanced through the optimisation, the investment value of the project is increased; (2) profit-sharing mechanism is identified as the most important factor, and a prudent design of it can effectively manage uncertainty; (3) option to recoup can optimise the concession period without harming private developer's interest. This research's novelty lies in (a) exploring the management flexibility and identifying potential options in the concession period of PPP projects; (b) a hybrid approach with the integration of ROA and Sobal-based global sensitivity analysis is proposed to perform the concession optimisation; (c) the profit-risk allocation between participants in PPP projects is balanced under the optimisation principle.

摘要

在公私伙伴关系（PPP）项目中，特别是对于复杂项目，特许期是决定性的。提出了一种结合实物期权分析（ROA）的系统方法来优化不确定性下的特许权。在长期购买力平价项目中，探索了各种方案来管理不确定性，并为特许权优化提出了优化原则。建议进行敏感性分析和案例比较，以测试优化特许权的有效性。该方法的适用性在PPP实用程序隧道案例中进行了测试，其中研究了扩展和补偿的选项。重要发现包括：（1）通过优化参与者的利益，增加项目的投资价值；（2）利益分享机制被确定为最重要的因素，审慎的设计可以有效地管理不确定性；（3）补偿的选择可以优化优惠期，而不会损害私人开发商的利益。这项研究的新颖之处在于：（a）在PPP项目的特许期内探索管理的灵活性并确定潜在的选择；（b）提出了将ROA和基于Sobal的全球敏感性分析相结合的混合方法，以进行特许权优化；（c）在优化原则下，PPP项目参与者之间的利润风险分配是平衡的。其新颖之处在于：（a）在PPP项目的特许期内探索管理的灵活性并确定潜在的选择；（b）提出了将ROA和基于Sobal的全球敏感性分析相结合的混合方法，以进行特许权优化；（c）在优化原则下，PPP项目参与者之间的利润风险分配是平衡的。其新颖之处在于：（a）在PPP项目的特许期内探索管理的灵活性并确定潜在的选择；（b）提出了将ROA和基于Sobal的全球敏感性分析相结合的混合方法，以进行特许权优化；（c）在优化原则下，PPP项目参与者之间的利润风险分配是平衡的。