ABSTRACT

As opposed to the three decades following independence, interstate wars have become frequent in the African great lakes region since 1990. This article analyses the unravelling of these wars and looks at their causes and consequences. The conceptual framework to analyse the clear but convoluted line linking these conflicts is that of path dependence and critical junctures. Each stage is defined in these terms. The article shows that path dependence is the main explanatory factor, but that critical junctures have played out at crucial moments, including when the initial stage was set in Uganda. It concludes that a very longue durée path dependence can be found in Rwanda, where most threads of the conflicts converge. However, it also finds that extreme state weakness in Zaire/DR Congo has been and still is a major contributory factor to the cross-border violence. The article finally argues that the conceptual framework is not only useful as an analytical tool, but may also assist efforts in conflict prevention and management.

摘要

与独立后的三十年相反，自1990年以来，非洲大湖区之间的州际战争变得更加频繁。本文分析了这些战争的瓦解，并探讨了其原因和后果。用于分析连接这些冲突的清晰但复杂的界限的概念框架是路径依赖和关键关口的框架。每个阶段均以这些术语定义。该文章表明，路径依赖是主要的解释因素，但是关键时刻在关键时刻已经开始发挥作用，包括乌干达的初始阶段。结论是，一个很贵的杜蕾路径依赖可以在卢旺达找到，那里大多数冲突线都汇合在一起。但是，报告还发现，扎伊尔/刚果民主共和国的极端国家弱势一直是并且仍然是造成跨境暴力的主要因素。文章最后认为，概念框架不仅可以用作分析工具，而且可以帮助预防和管理冲突。