ABSTRACT

This paper studies the effect of commercial bank affiliation on analysts’ forecasts using the Korean data over the 2000–2015 period. We find that the median EPS forecast error of 2.88% made by independent analysts is significantly larger than the median error of 2.47% made by bank-affiliated analysts. The difference in the optimism and accuracy of independent vs. bank-affiliated analysts is significant only for non-chaebol companies. We also find that capital markets respond to more positively (or more negatively) to stock recommendation changes that bank-affiliated analysts make and that the responses are larger for non-chaebol companies. The results are consistent with our conjecture that bank-affiliated analysts make more informative forecasts by sharing the information generated by commercial banks under bank conglomerates, their information advantage is salient for non-chaebol companies, and capital markets give value to the information advantage.

摘要

本文使用2000-2015年间的韩国数据研究了商业银行从属关系对分析师预测的影响。我们发现，独立分析师做出的EPS预测中值误差为2.88％，远大于银行附属分析师做出的2.47％的中值误差。独立vs.乐观与准确性的差异 银行附属分析师仅对非财阀公司具有重要意义。我们还发现，资本市场对银行附属分析师进行的股票推荐变更的反应更加积极（或更消极），对于非财阀公司而言，这种反应更大。结果与我们的猜测一致，即银行附属分析师通过共享银行集团下的商业银行产生的信息来做出更有益的预测，