Over the past year i.e. 2018–2019, Pakistan has been facing challenging macroeconomic conditions that include a ballooning fiscal imbalance and a weak external position with gross reserves at $8 billion, equal to 1.7 months of imports. On June 19, 2019, Reza Baqir, the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan wrote to the Managing Director of the IMF, seeking assistance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), on grounds that Pakistan’s international reserves had touched critically low levels with a large balance of payments gap, in an environment of limited market access. The situation was grim and extremely worrisome. Macro-economic vulnerabilities increased on the back of weak policies, with pro-cyclical fiscal policies leading to a surge in fiscal deficit and an accommodative monetary policy resulting in a significant current account deficit. Reza Baqir said that although significant measures were undertaken to meet the macro-economic challenges, the structural challenges remained unaddressed and institutions had not been strengthened to ensure economic discipline. Further a less than favourable external environment had further added to the difficult picture. The gradual policy measures—the depreciation of the rupee, some monetary tightening, and increase in gas prices were simply not enough to stabilise the economy. Comprehensive reforms became a felt need for fiscal tightening and addressing the maturing debt obligations in the coming years. Economic activity in Pakistan had slowed down considerably with agriculture, manufacturing and construction sectors witnessing considerable contraction owing to reduction in government spending. Economic growth declined to 3.3 per cent in 2019 from 5.5 per cent in 2018 while inflation accelerated to 9.1 per cent from 4.2 per cent in 2018. The fiscal deficits continued to deteriorate owing to revenue shortfalls, particularly in personal income tax collections. Tax-to-GDP ratio came down to 13 per cent, which is the lowest in South Asia. At the same time expenditures continued to rise due to higher interest payments, subsidies and defence-related spending. The fiscal deficit was largely financed by increased borrowing from the State Bank of Pakistan. Power sector arrears accumulated over the past two years, and reached close to 4 per cent of the GDP as a result of delays in adjusting tariffs, reversal of policies and non-payment of implicit subsidies by the government. Losses were also

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巴基斯坦与国际货币基金组织的 60 亿美元 EFF 安排

在过去的一年中，即 2018-2019 年，巴基斯坦一直面临着严峻的宏观经济状况，包括不断膨胀的财政失衡和疲软的外部状况，总储备为 80 亿美元，相当于 1.7 个月的进口。2019 年 6 月 19 日，巴基斯坦国家银行行长 Reza Baqir 致函 IMF 总裁，寻求扩展基金机制 (EFF) 下的援助，理由是巴基斯坦的国际储备已触及极低水平，在市场准入有限的环境中，国际收支缺口巨大。形势严峻，极其令人担忧。政策疲软导致宏观经济脆弱性增加，顺周期的财政政策导致财政赤字激增，宽松的货币政策导致经常账户赤字严重。Reza Baqir 说，尽管采取了重大措施来应对宏观经济挑战，但结构性挑战仍未得到解决，机构也没有得到加强以确保经济纪律。此外，不利的外部环境进一步加剧了困难局面。渐进的政策措施——卢比贬值、货币紧缩和汽油价格上涨根本不足以稳定经济。全面改革成为紧缩财政和解决未来几年到期债务的必要性。由于政府支出减少，巴基斯坦的经济活动大幅放缓，农业、制造业和建筑业出现大幅萎缩。经济增速降至3。2019 年从 2018 年的 5.5% 增长到 3%，而通货膨胀率从 2018 年的 4.2% 加速至 9.1%。由于收入短缺，特别是个人所得税征收方面，财政赤字继续恶化。税收与​​国内生产总值的比率降至 13%，这是南亚最低的。与此同时，由于更高的利息支付、补贴和国防相关支出，支出继续增加。财政赤字主要来自巴基斯坦国家银行增加的借款。由于电价调整延迟、政策逆转和政府不支付隐性补贴，电力部门欠款在过去两年累积，达到 GDP 的近 4%。损失也是 2018 年为 2%。由于收入短缺，特别是在个人所得税征收方面，财政赤字继续恶化。税收与​​国内生产总值的比率降至 13%，这是南亚最低的。与此同时，由于更高的利息支付、补贴和国防相关支出，支出继续增加。财政赤字主要来自巴基斯坦国家银行增加的借款。由于电价调整延迟、政策逆转和政府不支付隐性补贴，电力部门欠款在过去两年累积，达到 GDP 的近 4%。损失也是 2018 年为 2%。由于收入短缺，特别是在个人所得税征收方面，财政赤字继续恶化。税收与​​国内生产总值的比率降至 13%，这是南亚最低的。与此同时，由于更高的利息支付、补贴和国防相关支出，支出继续增加。财政赤字主要来自巴基斯坦国家银行增加的借款。由于电价调整延迟、政策逆转和政府不支付隐性补贴，电力部门欠款在过去两年累积，达到 GDP 的近 4%。损失也是 这是南亚最低的。与此同时，由于更高的利息支付、补贴和国防相关支出，支出继续增加。财政赤字主要来自巴基斯坦国家银行增加的借款。由于电价调整延迟、政策逆转和政府不支付隐性补贴，电力部门欠款在过去两年累积，达到 GDP 的近 4%。损失也是 这是南亚最低的。与此同时，由于更高的利息支付、补贴和国防相关支出，支出继续增加。财政赤字主要来自巴基斯坦国家银行增加的借款。由于电价调整延迟、政策逆转和政府不支付隐性补贴，电力部门欠款在过去两年累积，达到 GDP 的近 4%。损失也是 由于关税调整延迟、政策逆转和政府不支付隐性补贴，达到了 GDP 的近 4%。损失也是 由于关税调整延迟、政策逆转和政府不支付隐性补贴，达到了 GDP 的近 4%。损失也是