ABSTRACT The European arms industry is challenged by several adverse “headwinds.” Fragmentation leads to costly duplications and, in conjunction with stagnating budgets and sharply increasing costs, prevents firms from exploiting economies of scale and learning. This is exacerbated by size differentials vis-a-vis the leading US arms manufacturers and competition from emerging producers. As some “headwinds” are self-enforcing, far-reaching industrial and policy responses are required to improve the industry's outlook. As exports may not indefinitely compensate for low domestic demand, there is an economic imperative for further cross-border collaboration and consolidation. Despite various EU policy initiatives, progresses regarding the European Defence Equipment Market and strengthening the European Defence Technological Industrial Base have been relatively slow. It remains to be seen whether the European Defence Fund will be the proclaimed “game-changer,” raising competitiveness of the European arms industry. At the same time, the UK's withdrawal from the EU adds uncertainties.

中文翻译：

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应对欧洲军火工业面临的“逆风”

摘要 欧洲军火工业受到若干不利“逆风”的挑战。碎片化导致成本高昂的重复，加上停滞不前的预算和急剧增加的成本，阻碍了公司利用规模经济和学习。与美国主要武器制造商之间的规模差异以及新兴生产商的竞争加剧了这种情况。由于一些“逆风”是自我强化的，需要影响深远的行业和政策反应来改善行业前景。由于出口可能无法无限期地弥补国内需求的低迷，因此进一步跨境合作和整合在经济上势在必行。尽管欧盟采取了各种政策举措，欧洲国防设备市场和加强欧洲国防技术产业基地的进展相对缓慢。欧洲国防基金是否会成为公认的“游戏规则改变者”，提高欧洲军火工业的竞争力，还有待观察。与此同时，英国退出欧盟增加了不确定性。