ABSTRACT The central tenet of this article is that geography is the dominant factor in determining trade flows. British accession to the EEC in 1973 did not cause a discernible break in export trends already visible. As a complement to the existing literature on prospects for post-Brexit trade, we consider in-depth case-studies to ascertain the extent to which a reorientation of UK trade flows towards the Commonwealth might be feasible. We consider Nigeria and India as representatives of fast-growing economies with large populations in addition to Australia and Canada as examples of more mature economies. In each case, substantial barriers towards a substantive improvement in export conditions remain. We find that plans to ‘replace’ EU trade with that from the Commonwealth are problematic. As such, this article seeks to deepen our practical understanding of barriers to trade and explain why, ultimately, geography trumps history in determining British trade flows and will continue to do so, irrespective of the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

中文翻译：

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英联邦：英国退欧后贸易弊病的灵丹妙药？

摘要本文的中心思想是地理是决定贸易流量的主要因素。英国于1973年加入EEC并没有导致明显的出口趋势明显中断。作为对脱欧后贸易前景的现有文献的补充，我们考虑进行深入的案例研究，以确定对英联邦贸易重新定向到英联邦的可行性。我们认为尼日利亚和印度是人口众多的快速增长经济体的代表，此外澳大利亚和加拿大是更成熟的经济体的例子。在每种情况下，仍然存在实质性改善出口条件的重大障碍。我们发现，用英联邦的“替代”欧盟贸易计划是有问题的。因此，