ABSTRACT Terrorists could acquire nuclear weapons by using weapon-usable nuclear material that was stolen or otherwise diverted from legitimate authorities. Multiple well-documented seizures suggest the existence of a black market that draws on an unknown stock of weapon-usable nuclear material that is not under the control of authorities. We estimate the total amount of uncontrolled material based on publicly reported seizures and several different statistical methods and models. We estimate that 90 to 250 kilograms—sufficient for up to ten nuclear weapons—remain outside the control of legitimate authorities. While this estimate is subject to large uncertainties and potential bias, governments may have additional information about nuclear material seizures that could be used to improve estimates.

中文翻译：

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使用报告的缉获数据估计政府控制之外的可用于核武器的材料数量

摘要 恐怖分子可以通过使用从合法当局窃取或以其他方式转移的可用于武器的核材料来获取核武器。多次记录在案的缉获表明存在一个黑市，该黑市利用不受当局控制的未知武器可用核材料库存。我们根据公开报告的缉获量和几种不同的统计方法和模型估算了不受控制的材料总量。我们估计有 90 到 250 公斤——足够制造多达 10 件核武器——仍然不受合法当局的控制。虽然这种估计存在很大的不确定性和潜在偏差，但政府可能有关于核材料缉获的额外信息，可用于改进估计。