ABSTRACT This article reviews the case of the spent fuel fire that almost happened at Fukushima in March 2011, and shows that, had the wind blown the released radioactivity toward Tokyo, 35 million people might have required relocation. It then reviews the findings by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 2013 that the consequences of a loss-of-water event could be drastically reduced if spent fuel were moved to dry storage after 5 years of pool cooling but that the probability of a spent fuel pool fire is too low to make this a requirement. Our atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations using HYSPLIT for hypothetical releases from the Peach Bottom plant in Pennsylvania find average interdicted areas and populations requiring relocation larger than NRC estimates presented to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and support the NAS findings of errors and omissions in the NRC's cost-benefit calculations. Political pressures from industry on the NRC may be biasing its analyses toward regulatory inaction.

中文翻译：

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减少乏燃料池火灾的危险

摘要 本文回顾了 2011 年 3 月几乎发生在福岛的乏燃料火灾案例，并表明，如果风将释放的放射性物质吹向东京，可能有 3500 万人需要搬迁。然后，它审查了美国核管理委员会 (NRC) 在 2013 年的调查结果，即如果乏燃料在经过 5 年的水池冷却后转移到干式储存，那么失水事件的后果可能会大大减少，但概率乏燃料池火灾的温度太低，无法满足这一要求。我们使用 HYSPLIT 计算来自宾夕法尼亚州桃底工厂的假设排放的大气扩散和沉积计算发现平均禁区和需要重新安置的人口大于 NRC 提交给美国国家科学院 (NAS) 的估计，并支持 NAS 发现的错误和遗漏NRC 的成本效益计算。来自行业对 NRC 的政治压力可能使其分析偏向于监管不作为。