ABSTRACT In 2013, the staff of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimated the reduction of the off-site economic losses from a fire in a drained U.S. spent fuel pool if fuel that had cooled for more than five years were transferred to dry cask storage—an option it called “expedited transfer.” In this article, it is shown that the savings would be much higher than the NRC estimated. Savings increase to about $2 trillion if: losses beyond 50 miles are included; the land-contamination threshold for long-term population relocation is changed to that used for the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents and recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and, based on the experience of Japan, decontamination of land areas to levels acceptable for population return is assumed to take at least four years. If expedited transfer were implemented, the off-site economic losses would be reduced by about 98%.

中文翻译：

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密集的美国乏燃料池发生火灾造成的经济损失

摘要 2013 年，美国核管理委员会的工作人员估计，如果将冷却超过 5 年的燃料转移到干桶储存——一个排干的美国乏燃料池中发生火灾，将减少场外经济损失。选项称为“快速转移”。在本文中，表明节省的成本将远高于 NRC 的估计。如果： 包括超过 50 英里的损失；将长期人口迁移的土地污染阈值改为美国环保署推荐的切尔诺贝利和福岛事故使用的土地污染阈值；并且，根据日本的经验，假定至少需要四年时间才能将土地区域净化至人口回归可接受的水平。如果实施加急转移，