ABSTRACT

Earlier research describes the development of real housing prices as a ‘hockey stick’, i.e. of long stagnation followed by a sharp upturn in recent decades. A problem is that there are very few indices of residential property covering longer periods. Using a database of around 10,900 sales, this study presents a historical housing price index for Stockholm 1818–1875, which extend a previous index by 57 years, one of the longest for any city. A so-called repeated sales index is compared to a sales price appraisals ratio index. We show that in real terms there have been two long upswings, in 1855–1887 and 1993–2018. In other periods, real prices were stagnant or even slightly declining. The nineteenth century upturn did not end in a crash, but was followed by stagnation for a century. There are many similarities between the two upturns. For example, both coincided with the demographic expansion and were preceded by deregulations. During both periods, properties became more expensive relative income levels. Our new data, available at http://historia.se/StockholmResidentialPrices1818_1875.xlsx, reveals that the pattern of a ‘hockey stick’ between 1870 and 2012 is complemented by another hockey stick when the index is expanded.

摘要

较早的研究将实际房价的发展描述为“曲棍球棒”，即长期停滞，随后几十年来急剧上升。问题在于，涵盖较长时期的住宅物业的指数很少。使用约10,900笔销售的数据库，本研究提供了1818年至1875年斯德哥尔摩的历史住房价格指数，该指数将以前的指数延长了57年，是所有城市中最长的之一。将所谓的重复销售指数与销售价格评估比率指数进行比较。我们显示，实际上，在1855年至1887年和1993年至2018年之间存在两次长期上涨。在其他时期，实际价格停滞甚至略有下降。十九世纪的好转并没有以崩溃告终，但是停滞了一个世纪。两次好转之间有许多相似之处。例如，两者都与人口膨胀相吻合，并在放宽管制之前。在这两个时期，房地产的相对收入水平都变得更加昂贵。我们的新数据可在http://historia.se/StockholmResidentialPrices1818_1875.xlsx上获得，该数据揭示了1870年至2012年之间“曲棍球棒”的模式随着索引的扩大而得到了补充。