ABSTRACT While improving educational aspirations has been positioned by various stakeholders (e.g. governments, researchers, educators) as an important part of increasing higher education participation, there appears to be disagreement in the literature about this relationship. If a key goal of eliciting students’ educational aspirations is to reliably predict future university participation, researchers should choose aspiration measures supported by evidence regarding their predictive validity. In this article, the authors examine students’ university intentions considering past research has demonstrated the relative strength of its predictive validity. The key aim of this article is to investigate if, and to what extent, distance predicts students’ intentions to attend university. Over 9400 Australian students are included in the analysis. Findings indicated students from provincial areas were significantly less likely to report intent to study at university when compared with metropolitan students. Furthermore, remote students were less likely to report an intention to attend university than students in the metropolitan category. Controlling for socio-economic status (SES), as distance increases from an Australian metropolitan area, the likelihood of students reporting intentions to study at university decreases.

中文翻译：

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检查地理作为学生大学意愿的预测指标：逻辑回归分析

摘要尽管各利益相关者（例如政府，研究人员，教育工作者）将提高教育愿望作为增加高等教育参与的重要组成部分，但在文献中似乎对此观点存在分歧。如果激发学生的教育抱负的关键目标是可靠地预测未来的大学参与程度，则研究人员应选择有关于其预测效度的证据支持的抱负措施。在本文中，考虑到以往的研究证明了其预测有效性的相对优势，作者检查了学生的大学意图。本文的主要目的是研究距离是否以及在何种程度上可以预测学生的上大学意愿。分析中包括9400多名澳大利亚学生。研究结果表明，与大城市学生相比，省级学生报告大学学习意愿的可能性要小得多。此外，与大城市学生相比，边远地区的学生不太可能报告上大学的意愿。随着对社会经济地位（SES）的控制，随着距澳大利亚大都市区的距离增加，学生报告打算就读大学的可能性也会降低。