This paper evaluates and quantifies the short-term impact of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) on stock market performance in thirteen (13) African countries, using daily time series stock market data spanning 1st October 2019 to 30th June 2020. We employ a novel Bayesian structural time series approach (a state-space model) to estimate the relative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market performance in those countries. Generally, our Bayesian posterior estimates show that, in relative terms, stock market performances in Africa have significantly reduced during and after the occurrence of the COVID-19, usually between -2.7 % and -21 %. At the heterogeneous level, we find that 10 countries have their stock markets significantly and adversely affected by the COVID-19, whereas the remaining 3 countries see no significant impact (or a rather short-lived negative significant impact) of the COVID-19 pandemic on their stock markets. We find that, within our sample period, there is almost no chance that the COVID-19 pandemic would have positive effects on the stock market performance in Africa. Our findings contribute to the discussion and research on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing empirical evidence that the pandemic has restrictive effects on stock market performance in African economies.

本文使用 2019 年 10 月 1 日至 2020 年 6 月 30 日的每日时间序列股市数据，评估和量化了 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 对十三 (13) 个非洲国家股市表现的短期影响。我们采用一种新颖的贝叶斯结构时间序列方法（一种状态空间模型）来估计 COVID-19 大流行对这些国家股市表现的相对影响。一般来说，我们的贝叶斯后验估计表明，相对而言，在 COVID-19 发生期间和之后，非洲股市的表现显着下降，通常在 -2.7% 到 -21% 之间。在异质层面，我们发现 10 个国家的股票市场受到 COVID-19 的显着不利影响，而其余 3 个国家认为 COVID-19 大流行对其股市没有重大影响（或相当短暂的负面影响）。我们发现，在我们的样本期内，COVID-19 大流行几乎不可能对非洲股市表现产生积极影响。我们的研究结果通过提供经验证据证明大流行对非洲经济体的股票市场表现有限制性影响，有助于对 COVID-19 大流行的经济影响的讨论和研究。