This paper investigates the long-run relationship between international trade and protectionism, which is measured by a sub-component of the KOF globalization index using a standard import model with a heterogeneous balanced panel of 34 countries from 1970 to 2017. The model is tested using GDP and the Import Intensity-Adjusted Demand (IAD) as an activity variable for a performance comparison. Both specifications are estimated using recent advances in the panel autoregressive distributed lag model literature with cross-sectional dependence. The cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) and the cross-sectional distributed lag (CS-DL) models provide similar results. Mean group estimates show a proportional impact of IAD on international trade whilst the GDP effect is larger. The long-run protectionism elasticity is always negative and significant but less than half of the import price elasticity.

本文研究了国际贸易与贸易保护主义之间的长期关系，该关系通过KOF全球化指数的子部分使用标准进口模型（1970年至2017年由34个国家组成的异类平衡面板）进行衡量。该模型使用GDP和进口强度调整后的需求（IAD）作为绩效比较的活动变量。两种规格均使用面板自回归分布滞后模型文献中具有横截面依赖性的最新进展进行估算。横截面自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）和横截面分布滞后（CS-DL）模型提供了相似的结果。均值组估计显示了IAD对国际贸易的比例影响，而GDP的影响更大。